June 11 – July 19, 2026 · United States · Canada · Mexico
48 nations, 104 matches, one champion. The road from kick-off to the Final, complete.
See how the AI stacked up against the humans.
See the final scores→The 2026 World Cup is the first with 48 teams and 104 matches, the largest in the tournament's history.
A calibrated, probabilistic AI forecast.
From day one, the model’s top two were the eventual finalists: Spain at 10.9%, Argentina at 9.6%. It called the exact Final.
Backtested on 2018 & 2022 · Updated 19 Jul 2026 · Final run, all 104 results in
Each point is a model forecast published during the tournament, conditioned on every result completed at that time; the line connects successive published forecasts (recalcs ran in batches, so some matches share a segment).
June 11 – July 19, 2026 · United States · Canada · Mexico
48 nations, 104 matches, one champion. The road from kick-off to the Final, complete.
See how the AI stacked up against the humans.
See the final scores→The 2026 World Cup is the first with 48 teams and 104 matches, the largest in the tournament's history.
A calibrated, probabilistic AI forecast.
The model's pre-tournament champion odds (before a ball was kicked) against where each side actually finished. Ordered by that pre-tournament number; the green/red chip is how many places better or worse a side finished than the model ranked it, among these eight.
Round-weighted points vs the actual bracket. Full comparison →
See the final AI vs humans board.From day one, the model’s top two were the eventual finalists: Spain at 10.9%, Argentina at 9.6%. It called the exact Final.
Backtested on 2018 & 2022 · Updated 19 Jul 2026 · Final run, all 104 results in
The model's pre-tournament champion odds (before a ball was kicked) against where each side actually finished. Ordered by that pre-tournament number; the green/red chip is how many places better or worse a side finished than the model ranked it, among these eight.
Each point is a model forecast published during the tournament, conditioned on every result completed at that time; the line connects successive published forecasts (recalcs ran in batches, so some matches share a segment).
Round-weighted points vs the actual bracket. Full comparison →
See the final AI vs humans board.