Forecast

The model's title odds for every team, from a Monte-Carlo run over the full bracket — champion probability for all 48teams, with each team's path through the finalist, semi-final, quarter-final and group stages.

Model elo-dc-v1.0 · 50,000 simulations · pre-tournament · Updated 10 Jun 2026

Champion probability

top 16 of 48

1Spain
10.9%
2Argentina
9.6%
3Brazil
7.0%
4France
6.6%
5England
5.4%
6Portugal
4.2%
7Germany
4.1%
8Netherlands
4.0%
9Colombia
3.9%
10Mexico
3.7%
11Belgium
3.6%
12Japan
3.3%
13Morocco
3.0%
14United States
2.7%
15Uruguay
2.7%
16Croatia
2.2%

Bars are scaled to the leader; the % is the model's absolute title odds.

Dark horses

model > pedigree

Teams the model rates for a deep runwell above their seeding — quarter-final odds ranking higher than their blended Elo & FIFA-rank percentile. The three hosts are excluded here: their lift is home advantage, not under-seeding (their elevated odds still stand in the full table).

Germany28% to the quarters▲ 5%
Japan24% to the quarters▲ 5%
Belgium27% to the quarters▲ 5%

▲ = the team's quarter-final percentile minus its Elo/FIFA percentile.

Overvalued

rank > model

Teams whose FIFA ranksits well above the model's deep-run odds — a high ranking the quarter-final percentile doesn't support.

SenegalFIFA #14 · 17% to the quarters▼ 17%
AustriaFIFA #24 · 12% to the quarters▼ 15%
CroatiaFIFA #11 · 19% to the quarters▼ 15%
MoroccoFIFA #8 · 23% to the quarters▼ 11%
TurkeyFIFA #22 · 14% to the quarters▼ 11%

▼ = the team's FIFA-rank percentile minus its quarter-final percentile.

All 48 teams

champion → group odds

#	Team	Grp	Champ	Final	Semi	Quarter	Qualify
1	Spain	H	10.9%	17.5%	27.5%	40.6%	94%
2	Argentina	J	9.6%	15.7%	25.1%	38.1%	93%
3	Brazil	C	7.0%	12.4%	21.6%	35.6%	92%
4	France	I	6.6%	11.7%	20.1%	33.3%	88%
5	England	L	5.4%	9.7%	17.0%	29.3%	90%
6	Portugal	K	4.2%	8.2%	15.4%	27.6%	85%
7	Germany	E	4.1%	7.9%	15.5%	27.6%	89%
8	Netherlands	F	4.0%	7.8%	14.9%	27.2%	85%
9	Colombia	K	3.9%	7.6%	14.3%	26.8%	86%
10	Mexico	A	3.7%	8.1%	16.7%	35.1%	93%
11	Belgium	G	3.6%	7.2%	13.8%	27.3%	83%
12	Japan	F	3.3%	6.5%	12.8%	24.3%	81%
13	Morocco	C	3.0%	6.2%	12.4%	23.5%	81%
14	United States	D	2.7%	5.6%	11.1%	22.5%	78%
15	Uruguay	H	2.7%	5.7%	11.4%	21.3%	81%
16	Croatia	L	2.2%	4.7%	9.7%	19.1%	79%
17	Switzerland	B	2.1%	4.5%	10.0%	22.2%	85%
18	Ecuador	E	1.9%	4.3%	9.1%	18.8%	78%
19	Canada	B	1.8%	4.2%	9.8%	23.4%	89%
20	Iran	G	1.8%	4.0%	8.5%	18.9%	73%
21	Senegal	I	1.7%	3.7%	8.3%	17.4%	70%
22	Australia	D	1.5%	3.4%	7.6%	16.7%	70%
23	South Korea	A	1.4%	3.3%	7.7%	17.3%	72%
24	Norway	I	1.1%	2.7%	6.7%	14.6%	65%
25	Turkey	D	1.0%	2.5%	6.0%	14.2%	65%
26	Austria	J	0.9%	2.1%	5.2%	12.0%	63%
27	Algeria	J	0.8%	2.3%	5.6%	12.7%	65%
28	Egypt	G	0.8%	2.1%	5.1%	12.2%	61%
29	Ivory Coast	E	0.8%	2.0%	5.1%	12.4%	68%
30	Paraguay	D	0.7%	1.9%	4.7%	11.6%	59%
31	Uzbekistan	K	0.5%	1.3%	3.5%	8.5%	51%
32	Panama	L	0.5%	1.4%	3.8%	9.4%	60%
33	Czech Republic	A	0.4%	1.2%	3.5%	9.8%	56%
34	Sweden	F	0.4%	1.1%	3.0%	7.9%	51%
35	Tunisia	F	0.4%	1.1%	3.1%	8.1%	51%
36	New Zealand	G	0.4%	1.2%	3.3%	8.7%	53%
37	Scotland	C	0.4%	1.2%	3.3%	8.5%	54%
38	Iraq	I	0.3%	1.0%	2.6%	7.1%	45%
39	Saudi Arabia	H	0.3%	0.8%	2.2%	6.2%	48%
40	DR Congo	K	0.2%	0.7%	2.1%	5.8%	43%
41	Jordan	J	0.2%	0.7%	2.1%	5.8%	45%
42	South Africa	A	0.2%	0.6%	1.7%	5.8%	44%
43	Bosnia and Herzegovina	B	0.1%	0.4%	1.3%	4.7%	45%
44	Ghana	L	0.1%	0.4%	1.2%	3.9%	39%
45	Haiti	C	0.1%	0.4%	1.4%	4.5%	40%
46	Cape Verde	H	0.1%	0.3%	1.2%	3.8%	38%
47	Qatar	B	0.1%	0.4%	1.4%	5.0%	47%
48	Curaçao	E	0.1%	0.2%	0.7%	2.8%	33%

Champion · Finalist · Semi-final · Quarter-final · Group qualification — each the share of simulations the team reaches that stage. Columns reveal as the screen widens.